Forecast
Defaults to the overall national trend — the least noisy, most defensible number. Switch to a Stage or (legacy) Sector cohort for a narrower comparison.
Overall — 78 months of history
Confidence Audit
HIGHRecent trend continues (no regime change)
Shaky if: A single mega-announcement or policy shift (rate cut, new AI capex cycle) breaks the pattern
MEDIUMTracker coverage of this segment is stable over time
Shaky if: The tracker started covering this segment more/less completely partway through the window
LOWSeries has enough history for the model to fit meaningfully
Shaky if: Fewer than 12 months of history -- ARIMA's fit gets progressively less reliable below that
MEDIUMMissing/imputed headcount rows don't systematically bias the trend direction
Shaky if: Imputation was concentrated in recent months rather than spread evenly